2025 Performance
For the third year in a row the S&P 500 is up double digits. For many, especially those who gravitate towards tech stocks, it was another banger year. Yet again the differentiator between those who did well and those suffering was whether or not they stayed invested. For myself, it was a year I’m proud of because I followed my own instincts in a major shift in portfolio strategy at the end of 2024, and beat the S&P by ~10% despite the largest historical position (META 0.00%↑) underperforming. My portfolio ended the year up 26.61%, while the S&P 500 was up 16.39%.
Below I share performance and thoughts on each stock holding and those sold/added in 2025, with order determined by weight in portfolio. Full details are reserved at end for paying subscribers. Paid subscribers also gain access to instant notifications when I make any buy/sell moves.
META 0.00%↑ — YTD up 12.74%; 42.42% of portfolio
A strange year for Meta investors as the stock led the Magnificent 7 throughout the first half, but had fallen to 6th by year end. There was even one point in February where the stock broke the all-time S&P 500 record for most days up in a row at 20.
The stock then sold off near year end on renewed fears that Zuck is overspending on AI infrastructure and talent, but has little to show for it. I disagree with the market here, and see Meta’s core business improving significantly as a result of AI spend.
The critique I see as valid is how poorly Meta’s Llama foundation model has performed in comparison to OpenAI and Google. I think there is not much of a moat around foundation models and the game changes so fast that whoever is in the lead doesn’t really have a lot of control because of it. The key is moated distribution, which Meta clearly has a strong position in and will continue to grow. Eventually they’ll get the AI product side right, whether that be the model and/or agents, and this plus the core business will power future returns. I’m still very bullish Meta.
HALO 0.00%↑ — YTD up 40.77%; 19.46% of portfolio
My biggest bet for the year is one I felt good about at the end of 2024 and still feel good about now at the end of 2025. Halozyme double beat on earnings in every quarter, and still has a P/E ratio of just 14. The stock is undervalued if you (like me) think that the patent cliff fear is way overblown. Even if you do believe the stock will see revenue decline sometime after the next 5 years, the amount of cash they are generating now will allow acquisitions like the one recently made to replace and grow revenue. Whenever I dive into this stock I am shocked it does not have a higher valuation. Extremely bullish.
NET 0.00%↑ — YTD up 83.09%; 11.77% of portfolio
I wrote about Cloudflare in February, and every time I read a story or saw a social media update about the stock this year I always felt I wish I owned more of the stock. NET is in a bit of a weird position now because one could argue it’s overvalued after the huge run this year, especially when viewed through traditional market metrics. I’ll likely hold the stock as it should turn profitable this year while still growing revenue at 30%+ YoY. The company is really one of the best positioned for the future AI driven internet, so while I feel a bit quesy looking at the valuation, I think it’s one to hold if you believe AI will radically change how we use the web.
NTRA 0.00%↑ — YTD up 42.32%; 10.94% of portfolio
My other big biotech bet was purchased in November of 2024. The stock did basically nothing all year and then in the last three months it shot up 40%. Natera as a stock is similar to Cloudflare in many ways. It is not yet profitable, but is growing revenue at 30%+. One can argue these two companies are not profitable because they are investing so heavily into the AI driven future, and so as they scale and AI use cases take off, they will both profit handsomely. I like the management team, the business they’re in, and the future prospects of the stock.
U 0.00%↑ — YTD up 96.57%; 7.39% of portfolio
In September I wrote a deep dive into the stock and why I feel it’s worth investing in, and today still feel the same. It’s a tough stock to hold just because it’s all over the place and the wild swings are often based on little to no information. The future for their business is probably more tenuous than any other stock I hold, so if there were to be another huge swing to the upward end of $55-$60 with little information, I may consider selling. I do want to hold the stock to see if it fulfills its original ambitions, and the deal with Epic Games is one that I think shows it can be a scale partner for many important businesses. Nonetheless, and based on current valuations, if I needed to raise cash this would probably be one of the first to go.
CELH 0.00%↑ — Purchased for $46.07, current price at $45.74; 4.34% of portfolio
I bought this stock last month after the big selloff at earnings. I’ve written a bit about this stock over the past two years and finally pulled the trigger. It was my top pick for “cult stocks” I thought would do well in 2025, and it is up 68% YTD. Wish I had bought sooner. The revenue growth on this company is incredible… if they can keep their margins they will have a very strong 2026.
MSFT 0.00%↑ — YTD up 14.74%; 3.58% of portfolio
Increasingly feeling like I’m not sure why I own this stock. I really like Satya Nadella, but overall the business just feels mundane. AI agents have not worked for Microsoft, and they are having issues making money on AI. As a stock picker I always feel like I don’t understand why someone owns a stock at 1, 2, or 3% of their portfolio, so I may just sell this one and fold it into another in the next few months. Not a bad stock, just not one whose price is out of whack to where it will go in the next year. Might as well own an index.
OXY 0.00%↑ — YTD down 16.78%; Sold at $42, price is $41.12 today
One of my investing mistakes of the past two years which I’ve finally cut ties with. I bought this stock because I was overthinking oil after reading so much about Charlie Munger’s interest in it. A begrudging lesson learned in that you should trust your own instincts, and not overly rely on someone else’s, no matter how good an investor they are.
Summary of Views:
I consider META 0.00%↑, HALO 0.00%↑, and MSFT 0.00%↑ my safe picks, while NET 0.00%↑, NTRA 0.00%↑, U 0.00%↑, and CELH 0.00%↑ are risker and could see big swings in 2026. MSFT 0.00%↑ and U 0.00%↑ would be the first I would sell if looking to change up positions / raise cash.
Final Thoughts Before Paid Details:
The year was far from a standout as I didn’t own any of the best performing stocks or asset classes (as I did in 2023). I’m disappointed to not have had a position in gold prior to the Trump administration taking office as it lines up well with my geopolitical thinking and is up 62% YTD. I also sold both AMD 0.00%↑ and INTC 0.00%↑ last year, while both had a great 2025. Other disappointments include missing on the storage and memory boom this year, as one can see from the top performing S&P 500 stocks below.
I like my positions going into 2026, and will write an article with my views on the year in the coming weeks. Stay tuned.
